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  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #30 on: May 19, 2011, 09:59:09 AM » by bobbo
Scott--more corrections?  Excellent.  I guess you'd hate me saying that flat maps represent the world just fine?  Yes--context.  To that purpose, "I" think Global Warming is much more descriptive and accurate than the political temerity of Climate Change.  Warming is the vector--Change is accommodating ignorance.

The word I was looking to define was "predictability."  Perhaps the dictionary does that for weather and for climate but not much guidance on what "long range trend analysis" will convince those who are paid to disagree.

Now Scott--how much more affirmative can I be than starting my post with "We all Agree AGW is a FACT?  I believe it.".........But one of the most persistent arguments we will get from Deniers will be failure to predict weather.  Why do you so perniciously attribute this faulty argument to moi?  I did not advance it except as analysis of the battle plan.  Jeesh--you'd think we were discussion politics, or religion, or eugenics, or the Mets?

If everyone agreed with you about everything, there would be no interest in posting the issue?

Here's another popular Denier Argument I don't actually have a position on:  the historical record shows that co2 increases AFTER the temperature rises--indicating a release of co2 from ocean waters.  A result of natural GW, not AGW.  Now, I think I did read on a "How to Answer AGW Deniers" type website that this is a mistaken read of the ice core records or that there are feedback and delay loops that explain this.  Who knows?  And my mind is already made up----so who cares?

Hey---we all agree and here we are arguing like a bunch of Dumbocraps---who needs a dyed in the wool Repukicant to even offer a counter position?  Burn him---he's a witch!!!!!  Unless by definition you think he's a Warlock.
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  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #31 on: May 19, 2011, 06:35:25 PM » by Misanthropic Scott
Now Scott--how much more affirmative can I be than starting my post with "We all Agree AGW is a FACT?  I believe it.".........But one of the most persistent arguments we will get from Deniers will be failure to predict weather.  Why do you so perniciously attribute this faulty argument to moi?  I did not advance it except as analysis of the battle plan.  Jeesh--you'd think we were discussion politics, or religion, or eugenics, or the Mets?

Sorry. I misunderstood. I said I was surprised to hear you making that case. You've indicated in the past that you understood weather vs. climate.

If everyone agreed with you about everything, there would be no interest in posting the issue?

Ack.

Here's another popular Denier Argument I don't actually have a position on:  the historical record shows that co2 increases AFTER the temperature rises--indicating a release of co2 from ocean waters.  A result of natural GW, not AGW.  Now, I think I did read on a "How to Answer AGW Deniers" type website that this is a mistaken read of the ice core records or that there are feedback and delay loops that explain this.  Who knows?  And my mind is already made up----so who cares?

Feedbacks. Exactly right.

http://www.grist.org/article/co2-doesnt-lead-it-lags

Actually, you might be interested in that site as a whole. It has some good answers. I generally don't post them to skeptics/deniers because the site is almost deliberately antagonistic to those who disagree making them very unlikely to convince those who need it the most. People say the same about Dawkins on the topic of religion.

It has been updated since the last time I went there, years ago. Perhaps they've toned it down some. I know I emailed them requesting that they do. If enough people said the same, they might have done it.

http://www.grist.org/article/series/skeptics

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Whatever your cause, it’s a lost cause without population control. -- Paul Ehrlich

I refuse to believe corporations are people until Texas executes one. -- from moveon.org.

  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #32 on: May 20, 2011, 12:05:55 PM » by bobbo
Scott--good links.  The very links I read before or some other saying the same thing.  As I read it again, I had the thought that there was something disjointed in even trying to compare an ice record of NATURAL changes with what might be cause and effect by man made changes.  Why would one apply 100% to the other?  Assumptions!!  How do we know what we know, and how do we change our minds?  Can we accept limitations and simply admit we don't know some things?  And by "we" I mean "me."  I don't assume just because I read 20-30 articles on a subject that I have become knowledgable in a subject.  I can point out a few errors, if they are covered by what I read, but I don't have the hubris to think I "know" the subject.  I don't.  I rely on experts as I do for so much of what I think I think.  AGW says NOTHING about what any solutions for it should be.  Cap N Trade:  not a word.  Carbon Credits:  not a word.  Paint roadways and roofs white:  not a word.  Transition to solar cells:  not a word.  Those solution issues are not scientific issues==they are politics, self involvement, greed, and short sited issues.  Related, but not the same.  We should keep the science separate from the political.  Sadly, thats rarely done.

Climate prediction is difficult--not only the number of variables but how they interact with one another:  "both cause and effect" should blow anyone's mind.
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  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #33 on: May 20, 2011, 12:15:04 PM » by KD Martin
BTW, did you know that in Python, the computer language named for Monty Python, they do not use foo and bar as the metasyntactic variables. Instead, they use spam and eggs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anwy2MPT5RE

Nope.  But interesting.  I haven't coded anything for a while ever since that last contract with the govt. that I can't even talk about which really honks me off.

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  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #34 on: May 20, 2011, 06:26:33 PM » by Misanthropic Scott

I haven't coded anything for a while ever since that last contract with the govt. that I can't even talk about which really honks me off.

You just did. Though, you didn't say much and probably are allowed to say what you did.
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Whatever your cause, it’s a lost cause without population control. -- Paul Ehrlich

I refuse to believe corporations are people until Texas executes one. -- from moveon.org.

  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #35 on: May 23, 2011, 12:53:05 AM » by KD Martin
You just did. Though, you didn't say much and probably are allowed to say what you did.




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  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #36 on: May 23, 2011, 09:18:18 PM » by bobbo
Scott--short video here reviewing the history of the switch from Climate Change, to Warming, and Back Again.  Seems its all a political linguistics exercise by Luntz.  Yea, who you gonna believe, the IPCC, or a bunch of Republican Politicians reading from talking points?

http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/22/debunking-the-dumbest-denier-myth-climate-change-vs-global-warming/
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  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #37 on: May 25, 2011, 09:45:32 PM » by bobbo
Here's the type of "info" that caused me to go agnostic for awhile on the AGW issue:

http://newscientist.com/article/dn20509-pacific-shouldnt-amplify-climate-change.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news

Seems to me that any "model" that takes into account all the relevant variables should be able to at least predict something as basic as whether or not El Nino will become permanent or not.  But evidently not.  Still, the group of qualified scientists are confident enough without that bit of info.  So, who do we trust when basically we don't know an issue well enough to have a valid opinion?
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  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #38 on: May 26, 2011, 02:49:10 AM » by KD Martin

You can get real data without much trouble.  Not biased data, just real, raw data.  It's then up to you what to do with it, how to analyze it, which models it supports, etc.  Why believe politicians or projects funded by major corporations with possible conflicts of interest?  The biggest problem with climate models these days is that they seem to predict exactly what the funding entity wants to predict.  The Reason for these rather biased studies and results?  You can't get paid working for yourself or with other scientists that have no funding, and there aren't many studies with funding supplied by generous benefactors with no axe to grind or desired results.  There are just too many ignorant people and a lot of money to be made.  Ask yourself why Al Gore is a big global warming doomsday fanatic.  It sure isn't for humanitarian reasons.

I'm planning a series of articles with Misanthropic Scott on "global warming."  We're not getting paid for it.  Scott and I have different opinions and beliefs about global warming and whether or not it is occurring, to what extent, and can we change it.  If I can stay out of trouble, we'll get it done.  Maybe someone will actually comment, who knows?  I'd set up a poll as well, but based on past experience that would be a big waste of time.

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  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #39 on: May 26, 2011, 03:05:48 AM » by Misanthropic Scott

You can get real data without much trouble.  Not biased data, just real, raw data.  It's then up to you what to do with it, how to analyze it, which models it supports, etc.  Why believe politicians or projects funded by major corporations with possible conflicts of interest?  The biggest problem with climate models these days is that they seem to predict exactly what the funding entity wants to predict.  The Reason for these rather biased studies and results?  You can't get paid working for yourself or with other scientists that have no funding, and there aren't many studies with funding supplied by generous benefactors with no axe to grind or desired results.  There are just too many ignorant people and a lot of money to be made.  Ask yourself why Al Gore is a big global warming doomsday fanatic.  It sure isn't for humanitarian reasons.

I'm planning a series of articles with Misanthropic Scott on "global warming."  We're not getting paid for it.  Scott and I have different opinions and beliefs about global warming and whether or not it is occurring, to what extent, and can we change it.  If I can stay out of trouble, we'll get it done.  Maybe someone will actually comment, who knows?  I'd set up a poll as well, but based on past experience that would be a big waste of time.


Just remember, it's not my job to dig up this data and interpret it. As for what it supports, well, a knowledge of the atmosphere, the hydrological cycle, ocean currents, the carbon cycle including carbon sinks, methane clathrates, the effect of high atmosphere trace gases, especially CFCs, the dimming effect of particulate matter that is being cleaned up in much of the world, and many more sciences (but not meteorology) make up climatology. So, is it really so appropriate to advocate lay people interpreting raw data? Do we all need to learn to read ice cores and lake cores and ocean floor cores and tree rings and ... for ourselves?

Anyway, I'm still waiting for the very first of the links I requested from you.

In particular, I would love to see the paper that shows carbon by percentage of the atmosphere rather than by parts per million and how it claims such a radically different amount of increase just by using different units. Seems to me there would be an easy conversion from parts per million to percentage of atmosphere and that the percentage increase would be the same when expressed either way. In fact, for percentage of atmosphere, wouldn't one simply divide PPM by 1,000,000 and then multiply by 100 (resulting in dividing by 10,000)? Wouldn't that put CO2 at 0.00383% of the atmosphere now versus 0.00280% at the start of the industrial revolution and 0.00220% at the dawn of agriculture (which is sometimes cited as the start of the anthropocene era)? What am I missing here?

« Last Edit: May 26, 2011, 03:20:30 AM by Misanthropic Scott »
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Whatever your cause, it’s a lost cause without population control. -- Paul Ehrlich

I refuse to believe corporations are people until Texas executes one. -- from moveon.org.

  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #40 on: May 26, 2011, 03:15:14 AM » by KD Martin

If you want to argue models, you'll have to at least demonstrate from whence the data came and give some clues as to its authenticity.

I'll have your CO2 data for you when and if I wake up.  It's 06:15 CDT and I don't plan on dreaming about global warming unless Angelina Jolie and Barbara Eden ca. 1965 have something to do with it.

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  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #41 on: May 26, 2011, 03:22:57 AM » by Misanthropic Scott

If you want to argue models, you'll have to at least demonstrate from whence the data came and give some clues as to its authenticity.

I'll have your CO2 data for you when and if I wake up.  It's 06:15 CDT and I don't plan on dreaming about global warming unless Angelina Jolie and Barbara Eden ca. 1965 have something to do with it.



So far, I've not mentioned models. I've just asked for a link explaining why you do not believe that we have significantly increased CO2 from 280 PPM to at least 383 PPM, an increase of at least 36%.
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Whatever your cause, it’s a lost cause without population control. -- Paul Ehrlich

I refuse to believe corporations are people until Texas executes one. -- from moveon.org.

  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #42 on: May 26, 2011, 05:59:21 AM » by bobbo
KD--you say:  "Scott and I have different opinions and beliefs about global warming and whether or not it is occurring, to what extent, and can we change it."/// 

1.  Even Global Warming?  or do you mean AGW?  Why is the ocean level constantly rising if not because of GW?

2.  Is there any doubt at all "we" can change climate?  Use or stop using CFC's I thought was an accepted demonstration?  And if we set off 5-6 Nukes to maximally put dust into the high atmosphere, isn't there a consensus on what that would do?

So important to be precise and consistent about the terminology used here.  As to your other point--I have no use for raw data and I don't know how to use it.  I can't measure the density of the Universe and I can't competently opine on issues of AGW.  I do wonder what happens to all that Carbon that gets burned.  Seems to me it should either make things better or worse--depending on how you define things, and better, and worse.  The notion that doubling a green house gas would have no effects seems highly unlikely, but I'm not qualified to conclude that.  Do you dispute that co2 is a green house gas?

Please don't spend any time responding to "me" as this is Scott's thread and I'm sure my nattering negativities will get addressed in the more titanic struggle.  In fact, with any exchange at all, they will have to be.
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  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #43 on: May 26, 2011, 12:52:08 PM » by KD Martin
So far, I've not mentioned models. I've just asked for a link explaining why you do not believe that we have significantly increased CO2 from 280 PPM to at least 383 PPM, an increase of at least 36%.

You'll have to refresh my memory on where I said that.

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  Re: Vatican Accepts Climate Science
« Reply #44 on: May 26, 2011, 01:48:22 PM » by Obtuser
 I neither support or deny Climate Change other than archeological records indicate that this Planet has undergone many shifts in its past. At least twice it was a total "snow ball" and more than once it has been a super jungle.
Now how much of any current shift can be attributed to Homo Sap. is what the discussion is about. What I need to point out is that in the current 300 years it is claimed that Man has "denuded the Planet of 50% of the forest cover. I don't know how this was arrived at, but there are some links to that statement.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation

http://ezinearticles.com/?The-History-of-Deforestation-and-the-Impact-it-Brought-to-the-Modern-World&id=1221355

http://www.google.ca/search?q=world+deforestation+history&hl=en&client=firefox-a&hs=Bwi&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&prmd=ivns&tbs=tl:1&tbo=u&ei=58TeTdXXJ-r20gHhmK2lCg&sa=X&oi=timeline_result&ct=title&resnum=11&ved=0CGgQ5wIwCg&biw=1015&bih=584

If you have the time to read and absorb just part of this information in the 3 links, it becomes evident there is a problem. Trees are or were the major Carbon repository bank or sink for this Planet, and their effect on Climate alone is huge. One simple way to stall and reverse Global warming is to plant vast numbers of new trees. This makes good economic sense too, since the future value of the various grades of cellulose used in every thing from lumber to paper and beyond is almost incalculable. Land [soil] which is good for growing forests is often less useful for growing grain crops, hence it is mandatory that better use of the arable land is based on nutrient analysis plus chemical constituents. Trees will grow in places where grasses cannot thrive. Upstream from where I live, is a creek one could describe as "boulder gulch" where much of it is forested in spite of the glacial deposits of large rocks, gravel, sand, clay, and loam. Several plots were broken and seeded many years ago that have returned to near original state due to economics. Given a hand, the land will recover to what it used to be.
 An example of this is the eleven acre conservation park known as Hilton Pond near York, S.C. where the recovery is well documented but very small in scale.
http://www.envirolink.org/resource.html?catid=1&itemid=20010716011007172577



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What are you worrying for? You are not getting out of this life alive, dead don't hurt, getting there might, and in some cases, damn well should!
 Plus during and after the next Ice Age, all of this infrastructure around us won't matter squat!

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